Urban

Period Covered: January-March 2010 | Issued: 20 April 2010

Overview

FSNAU has conducted its 9th round of the Quarterly Urban Emergency Assessment in the last two weeks of March, covering 22 towns across Somalia. Mogadishu was excluded from the assessment due to insecurity, while all other major towns of all regions have been assessed (Table 1). For the first time FSNAU disaggregated urban food security analysis by categories of urban livelihoods in Somalia to increase accuracy in estimations and ensure greater comparability between different towns. The urban livelihood has been sub-divided into three main categories according to population size and economic activities:

• Main urban towns (big) or cities, which are large anddensely populated urban areas;
• Semi-urban (medium) where people derive their income predominantly from agriculture-related activities; and
• Peri-urban (small) areas with smal population situated on the periphery or borders of large towns and cities.

The analysis of the assessment data as well as secondary information indicate that persisting inflation in food prices and civil insecurity remain the key factors affecting the food and livelihood security of the urban poor in Somalia. Increased inflationary impact over the last three months, particularly in locally produced cereals, continued presence of internally displaced people in key urban centres and shrinking humanitarian space, particularly in southern and central regions have been the main constraining factors of food accessibility of urban poor. While 580,000 urban poor are currently in humanitarian crisis, maintained or increased wage rates across the country, average labour availability and food gifts/zakat in agricultural producing areas in the South have been mitigating factors preventing the situation from deterioration. Urban poor of central regions, however, are of more concern due to greater inflation rate, higher food prices, low income and exhausted social support due to several years of sustained crisis.

Hyperinflation, Cost of the Minimum Basket and Purchasing Power

Inflation measured through CPI (change in the cost MEB in relation to base year) continues to be high across the country, showing a further increase since December last year  in SoSh areas (Central, South Northeast) and a marginal  decline in SlSh areas. The highest rise in inflation levels was observed in Central, from 140% in December 2009 to 167% in March 2010. The CPI increase was in the range of 8-14% in the North SoSh (from 112% to 120%) and the South  (from 80% to 94%) over the same period (see Market Sector).  Prices of locally produced cereals (sorghum and maize) are significantly higher in relation to their pre-inflation levels throughout the country and increased further in the last three months. The prices of maize, which is commonly consumed in maize producing regions of Shabelle and Juba as well as in Mogadishu, have increased by 37%, 11% and 60%, respectively. This increase is attributable to low Deyr 2009/10 maize production in Shabelle regions, increased demand created by suspension of food aid distribution in the South and trade disruptions associated with civil insecurity. In the same period, sorghum prices have increased in the South (24%), Central (18%) and North SoSh areas (17%), showing the highest level in the Northeast (SoSh 20,000/kg) due to high transportation costs of sorghum supplies coming from the South. In the meanwhile, the sorghum price has reduced in North SlSh zone significantly (31%), due to reduced demand as people were able to access more popular and commonly consumed rice, and high supply on the market in view of good cereal crop production prospects in the zone. The price of rice, which is the main staple food in the North as well as northern parts of Central, increased in the North SoSh areas (from SoSh 19,000/ kg to SoSh 21,000/kg) and Central (from SoSh 23,300/kg to SoSh 23,700/kg). Conversely, the rice price has declined by 4% in  the North SlSh zone, as well as the South.

Sorghum is the cheapest and therefore main type of local cereal consumed throughout the country, particularly at times of crisis. Due to this very reason, sorghum accounts for a larger weight in the urban poor MEB, where energy requirement threshold is set at 2100Kcal per person per day for a household of six-seven individuals. Sorghum price dynamics of the last three months, as well as the changes in prices of sugar (see Market Sector) have impacted increase in the CMB of the urban poor across the country, except for North SlSh zone where the CMB reduced marginally due to significant price decline for sorghum (Figure 9). Overall the CMB has increased marginally in the South (14%) and North SoSh zone (8%) and moderately in  Central (27%) with the respective average CMB in these zones equivalent to SoSh 1,914,000, SoSh 4,130,000 and SoSh 3,768,000. In the North SlSh zone the CMB has gone down by 2%, from SlSh 823,277 to SlSh 811,081 due to significant decline in sorghum price. By urban categories, the increase in the CMB was observed in semi-urban (6-14%) areas apart from the South where it declined marginally by 2%, as well as in peri-urban areas of the South and Central (10-20%). Conversely, CMB has declined (4-7%) in the main urban towns of Somalia. This is attributable to relatively cheaper food and non-food commodities in big urban centres, supplying these commodities to smaller urban towns at additional costs associated with transportation.

The Terms of Trade (labour to cereals) have generally declined in the last three months in most main urban markets due to increase in sorghum and maize prices. The exceptions are the markets of Sorghum Belt (Baidoa and Beletweyne), where the ToT has increased in the range of 28-30% due to decline in sorghum prices in Baidoa (22%) and significant increase in labour wage rate in Beletweyne (38%) resultant from declining conflict and confrontations in the town. On average, in March 2010 the ToT in the South stood at 11kg/daily labour, indicating 8% decline from three months ago and 15% from the same month last year. In central regions, the ToT sorghum/daily labour has maintained the same level (4 kg/daily labour) since December 2009 but was considerably higher (by 48%) than in March last year (2.7 kg/daily labour). Conversely, the ToT (labour to rice) has declined in both North SoSh  (9%) and North SlSh areas (17%) in the last three months, from 5.5 to 5 kg/daily labour and from 6.8 kg to 5.7 kg/daily labour, respectively, although they are higher (by 16% and 14%, respectively) compared to the same period last year (March 2009) (Figure 10). The decline is attributable to increased rice prices in the North SoSh zone and declined labour wage rates in the North SlSh zone. By zones, the highest ToT is found in the South with relatively cheaper, locally produced cereals (sorghum and maize),while the lowest is in Central, with higher imported rice prices and lower labour wage rates.

Income, Labour Availability and Wage Rates

An analysis of the urban poor income (Mar ’10) shows varying levels and mixed trends compared to the levels of three months ago (Dec ’10). Incomes of the poor in the main urban (big), semi-urban (medium) and most peri-urban (small) centres have increased in correlation with the inflation levels of the same period. The exceptions are small peri-urban centres of the South where incomes have slightly reduced in the last three months, likely due  to recent suspension of humanitarian activities, affecting labour opportunities from portage – one of the most common labour activities of urban poor. According to the assessment findings, on average, male members of poor households had access to labour for 20-24 days/month in March 2010, while women and children were more engaged in self-employment activities (petty trade, water sales, etc.). Overall, labour wage rates increased over the last three months in the South and North SoSh areas at a time when inflation and cereal prices were also going up. However, in Central wage rates were comparable or have declined slightly since December 2009, while these have gone down in the North SlSh areas due to low construction activities and labour oversupply.

Generally, incomes of the poor in most urban centres were adequate to meet, or cover beyond, the CMB. However, due to lower income levels in Central, particularly in drought stricken Abudwaq, Dhusamareb and Elder, the expenditure gap persisted and increased further up to 34-46% from three months ago. The increased gap is attributed to reduced social cash support (remittance, gifts, and loans), from an average 24% share in the income in December 2009 to 13% in March 2010, due to overstretching resultant from consecutive years of drought, conflict and large IDP presence. Conversly, the contibution of social support to the incomes of the urban poor has increased in other SoSh areas in the range of  2-8%. By March 2010, the share of social support in the urban poor incomes was equivalent to 17% in the South, 27% in North SoSh areas and 20% in SlSh areas.

Urban Nutrition Analysis

As a component of the urban assessment, rapid nutrition assessments were conducted in 25 Somali urban centers. These assessments assessed Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) of 4511 children from 780 households aged 6-59 months, household dietary diversity of preceding 24 hrs and proportion of households reportedly employing severe coping strategies considered. Results were compared to the same time period in 2009. As the surveys were not representative they should be interpreted with caution.

Results indicated that the most nutritionally vulnerable urban centres with the highest proportion of acutely malnourished children (MUAC <12.5cm or oedema) were Jowhar, Eldheer, Baidoa, Burao, Elberde (L/Shabelle, Central, Bay, Burao, and Bakool region respectively). The situation in Eldheer and Elberde is mainly attributed to persistent poor household food security. In Bay and Shabelle disease and poor dietary diversity are the major contributing factors.  Further concerning proportions of households consuming a poorly diversified diet (< 4 food groups) were only reported in Burao and Lasaanod  towns.  Purchase is the main way to access food, except in Buale/Sakow and Lasaanod towns, where main food sources were own food production and zakat. The urban centers with increased levels of severe coping strategies being employed compared to the same time period in 2009 were Afgoye, Hargeisa, Lasanod, Eldheer, ELberde, Huddur, Belet Hawa and Haradhere.