Issued November 2, 2009

In October ‘09, FSNAU carried out its seventh round of quarterly rapid urban assessments in the main regional towns throughout Somalia. Two towns, which are normally included in the assessment, Kismayo and Dhobley, could not be accessed due to worsened civil insecurity.  The analysis indicates that urban households’ access to food has begun to improve since June ’09 in most areas in Somalia, with the exception of the central regions. Urban households in the south, the north and northwest are able to cover the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB).However, poor households are still reliant on remittances, cash gifts or loans to cover between 20-25% of this minimum expenditure basket.  In contrast, the deterioration in central regions is mainly caused by increased prices of cereals, subsequent increased cost of the minimum expenditure basket and reduced social support in these regions.  Preliminary analysis of nutrition data from Galkayo urban assessment using MUAC conducted in Oct. ’09 also indicates concerning.  Detailed nutrition analysis will be shared in the Sept.-Oct. ‘09 FSNAU Nutrition Update.


Central, South, Northeast Average  Wage Rate



Urban food access is primarily determined by the ability to purchase food. The deterioration in urban food access in the central regions is mostly attributed to increased food prices. Since June ’09, prices of local cereals and major imported food commodities of the minimum expenditure basket have increased in the main urban markets of the central regions. Namely, prices have increased for sorghum (25%), sugar (19%), and vegetable oil (14%). Conversely, overall red sorghum prices have declined in other areas (south, north and northwest), although there are substantial price differences among the regions.  Reduced red sorghum prices are recorded in Baidoa (Bay) and Belethawa (Gedo), while the prices have increased in the other urban markets of the Sorghum Belt. Maize prices have also reduced in Shabelle and Juba regions.  In the northern regions where rice is the main staple food, prices stayed relatively stable in the North, while they have increased by 25% in the Somaliland Shilling areas in the northwest.

The sorghum price increases in the central regions (25%) are reflected in the increased cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB) since June ’09. The average CMB increase in the main towns of the central regions is equivalent to 25% between July and Sept ‘09. Conversely, the CMB has reduced marginally (4-7%) in the rest of the country over the same period. Terms of Trade (TOT) between labour and cereals, an indicator of household purchasing power, has deteriorated in a number of main urban markets between July-Sept. ’09.  The central regions again show the largest decline (16-40%) in the TOT compared to the south (9-19%) and the northwest (5-12%). Conversely, the TOT remained stable in the northeast regions since the previous assessment.  There are large variations in the TOT changes in the southern regions, with the greatest deterioration in Hiran (19%) and marked improvement in Baidoa (Bay - 67% increase) and Jowhar (Middle Shabelle – 38%).  The deterioration in Hiran is mostly attributed to substantially increased sorghum price (33%).  At the same time, the improvement in Baidoa is because of the reduced sorghum prices (by 20%), as well as considerable increase in daily labour wages (by 30%) due to the intensified agricultural activities for Deyr planting.

Overall, wage rates are stable since June ’09 in most urban areas with the moderate decline observed in a number of markets in the south (Gedo -16%; Middle Juba -20%), central (Abudwak – 16%) and the north (Sanaag - 8%). The main reasons for the decline include drought (central and north) and worsened civil security (south and central). Conversely, wage rates have increased in the northwest (Borama – 30%), which is attributed to increased job opportunities during Karan planting.

As a result of high food prices compared to pre-inflation levels (March ’07), urban households spend over three-quarters of their income on food. The expenditure pattern in the central regions is similar to that observed in June ’09, with staples comprising more than half of the urban households’ food expenditures, which accounts for over 80% of their total expenditures. Conversely, in the south spending on staples has decreased by 40% due to good Gu ’09 and off-season cereal production in key cereal producing areas, increased food gifts and food aid. 

At the same time, in the north expenditure on cereals have doubled, while milk expenditure has also almost tripled (266% increase) due to significant increase in milk prices following the several seasons of drought.  Consequently, the share of food in the total expenditures of urban households in the north increased from 57% in the previous assessment to 80% in the current. In the Somaliland Shilling areas, the urban households’ average expenditures on cereals have decreased by 15% as households increased consumption of sorghum in lieu of the traditional rice due to the increased prices of imported rice. The incomes of urban households in the south, the north and northwest areas are sufficient to cover the CMB. However, about 20-25% of the poor households’ expenditures in the north and northwest areas are covered by remittances, cash gifts and loans, respectively.  Conversely, households in the central regions have an average expenditure gap of 10% as their incomes are not sufficient to meet the CMB, mostly due to the reduced social support (remittances, gifts, loans) in this region.