Issued 17 December 2009

Rainfall performance
The Deyr rainfall distribution, both in time and space, varied across the regions and livelihoods of Somalia. In northern and central parts of the country, rains started in late September and continued up to mid-October, while no rainfall was recorded in November. Most southern regions, on the other hand, remained dry in September, while the rains were continuous and widespread in October and ceased in early November in most livelihood zones. Field reports, however, indicate that the rains have since resumed in parts of the south from the beginning of December.

In the north, rains were of fair intensity (25-75mm) with wide distribution in Golis Guban, parts of Sanaag and Nugal and moderate distribution in the Hawd livelihood zone. However, very poor rains fell in most parts of the Coastal Deeh, parts of Dharoor and Gagaab, as well as the Addun of Jariban district (Mudug region). Compared to the long term mean (LTM) the rainfall was average in most areas of the north, while only 20-60% of normal in most of the Coastal Deeh, the Hawd of Toghdeer and parts of Sanaag region. Hays rains are still expected to fall along the coastal beltline in December.

Deyr ‘09 season had a mixed performance in the drought-affected central regions of Galgaduud and Mudug. Normal to near normal rains were received in the Cowpea Belt, localized parts of the Addun pastoral and parts of the Coastal Deeh. However, rains were extremely poor in Adado, Dhusamareb and Abudwak districts, pockets of the Cowpea Belt and parts of the Coastal Deeh. A comparison between actual (Oct-Nov. ‘09) and normal (LTM) rainfall data indicates normal to above normal rains in the rest of central Somalia. For example, rain gauge data from Bulo-Burti and Beletweyne stations recorded 153mm and 271mm of rains in  October, which are 177% and 300% of October LTM, respectively. However, rainfall was below the LTM in both areas during November (43% of LTM in Bulo-Burti and 63% of LTM in Beletweyne).

In the south, most areas experienced normal to above normal rains with the exception of northern parts of Hawd Pastoral in Hiran, southern parts of agropastoral and riverine areas of Bulo-Burti and Jalalaqsi (Hiran), parts of Elberde (Bakool) and southern Garbaharey (Gedo). Deyr rains were very poor in these areas throughout the season.  During Oct-Nov., torrential rains causing moderate flash floods were reported in parts of Hiran, Gedo, Shabelle and Juba regions. However, the expectation that the El-Niño phenomenon would result in very heavy Deyr rains and extensive floods has not materialised.

Vegetation Conditions
The Deyr season has been characterised by relatively good vegetation conditions as a result of the Sept.-Nov. rains. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first dekad of December indicates good vegetation conditions in most parts of the south and central regions with the exception of the agropastoral livelihoods of Bakool, Gedo, Hiran as well as the Coastal Deeh of Middle Shabelle and Galgadud. In the north, normal vegetation is observed in Golis Guban, parts of Sanaag and Nugal regions while livelihood zones of Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral in Saanag as well as West Golis Pastoral of Togdheer show slightly better pasture conditions than the surrounding livelihoods.