Issued 17 December

Agriculture

Crop Establishment and Production
Overall crop establishment in this Deyr season was near normal in most areas of southern and central Somalia, including Juba, Bay, Gedo, Shabelle, parts of Bakool and Hiran, as well as the Cowpea Belt of Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud and Mudug. Conversely, poor crop establishment was reported in parts of Bulo-Burti and Jalalaqsi (Hiran), as well as Kismayo and Afmadow (Lower Juba) due to below average rainfall, flash floods, weed infestation (parts of Hiran and Lower Juba) as well as a poor civil security situation (particularly Lower Juba). Most regions experienced a long dry spell of nearly 30 days during November, which raised concerns that crop performance could be affected if the dry conditions continued until the end of Deyr season. However, in the beginning of December moderate rains  resumed in parts of Shabelle, Juba, Gedo, Bay and  areas of Bakool and Hiran. The FSNAU will closely monitor rain performance through the end of December.

According to field reports, cereal production is expected to be near normal in southern Somalia. The upcoming cowpea harvest in Cowpea Belt areas also looks like it will be near normal levels. Field reports also indicate that the areas cultivated have increased as farmers have taken advantage of the good start of Deyr rains. Additionally, IDPs who fled  conflicts are increasingly engaging in farming activities. This season, larger areas have been planted with sesame in both rain-fed as well as riverine areas due to high sesame prices and increased export demand.

In the agropastoral areas of Awdal, West Galbeed and Togdheer regions in the northwest, significantly below average crop production was forecasted during post Gu ’09 assessment due to below normal and unevenly distributed Gu ’09 rains. However, Karan rains received in late July-Sept. '09 improved crop development in Awdal and W. Galbeed and production is likely to exceed the forecast yet remaining below average. FSNAU and partners will carry out post-Gu/Karan crop harvest assessment in December 2009.

Cereal Prices
Maize and sorghum prices vary considerably across the main reference markets of southern Somalia. Price declines of 10-25% in locally produced maize and sorghum were recorded between July-Nov. ’09 in Shabelle, Bay and the riverine areas of Juba regions. Jammame showed more drastic declines, where the maize price decreased by 57% over the same period (from 7,500SoSh/kg to 3,200SoSh/kg). These cereal price decreases are attributed to high supply in the markets due to the promising Deyr ‘09/10 cropping season, reduced road blocks (particularly Shabelle, Bay and parts of Juba regions) and stability of the Somali Shilling against the US dollar. However, the prices of maize and sorghum in southern markets are still 120% to 230% higher compared to the 5-year average for November (2004 – 2008).

The lowest maize prices in Nov. ‘09 (3,000-5,000 SoSh/kg) were recorded in riverine livelihoods of Jammame (Lower Juba), Jilib and Buale (Middle Juba), Afgoye, Marka and Qoryooley (Lower Shabelle) due to good Gu ’09 and off-season maize productions. Whereas the highest maize prices  (12,000 - 14,000 SoSh/kg) are in the main markets of pastoral livelihoods zones in Dhobley, Afmadow and Hagar (Lower Juba), mainly due to the remote locations high transportation costs, poor Gu ’09 cereal production, as well as road blocks caused by conflicts in Afmadow and Badhade.  

Sorghum prices in Nov. ’09 were lowest (3,500SoSh/kg to 4,500SoSh/kg) in the main markets of Bay region (Baidoa, Qansaha Dhere and Diinsor), as well as Lower Shabelle (Wanlaweyne district - 4,700SoSh/kg). Conversely, the highest sorghum prices (8,000 – 10,000 SoSh/kg) were recorded in Gedo (Luuq, Bardheere) and Bakool (Hudur). In the coming months, maize and sorghum prices are likely to continue to decline in Lower Shabelle, Bay and Juba riverine because market supplies are expected to be high during the post-Deyr ‘09/10 period. Conversely, cereal prices may increase in agropastoral areas of Lower Juba, Hiran, Gedo, Bakool and parts of Middle Shabelle regions due to the overall low cereal stocks from the Gu ’09 season, disruptions of market activities and restrictions of inter-regional trade resulting from civil insecurity. FSNAU will closely monitor cereal market availability and prices in the main markets in the coming months.

Labour Opportunities
Good rainfall and crop establishment/development have increased income opportunities for poor households in most parts of southern Somalia. FSNAU expects that the current agricultural production cycle will provide continuous labour opportunities (e.g. sowing in Desheks of Lower Juba, first and second weeding, bird scaring and harvesting) in the coming months in Juba, Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran. Interestingly,  the heavy rains and flash floods in Oct. ‘09 also significantly increased the demand for labour, as well as the cost of planting and weeding in the riverine and agropastoral livelihoods of southern Somalia. The intensified activities increased labour wage rates in all areas except for conflict-affected areas of Juba. The ongoing cash-for-work project of the irrigation canal de-silting in Lower Shabelle region has also provided job opportunities to the poor and shall contribute to good Deyr crop production in the riverine areas.

Terms of Trade
The terms of trade between cereal and labour in the maize producing areas of Shabelle and Juba riverine showed improvement in Nov. ‘09 when compared to July ‘09. The improvement is due to good Gu ’09 cereal production and expected near normal Deyr ‘09/10 production; this led to declines in cereal prices and increases in labour wage rates. To illustrate since last July, the TOT between maize and the daily labour wage have doubled in Shabelle regions. In Juba regions, the aggregate TOT (maize/labour) increase is equivalent to 5%, despite a significant maize price decline in the main markets of riverine areas.  

However, the TOT for sorghum producing areas showed a more complicated picture with substantial differences among the main markets of the Sorghum Belt. The TOT between July ’09 and Nov. ’09 declined by 20-40% in most markets (Gedo, Bakool, Hiran) due to increased sorghum prices following Gu ’09 crop production failure. However, in the Bay region TOT showed increases, with a substantial increase of 61% observed in Baidoa markets. Due to the opposite directions in TOT changes across the main markets of the Sorghum Belt, the aggregated TOT for all Sorghum Belt markets (including Bay) for Nov. ’09 shows the overall decline of only 5% from July ’09. 

The highest TOT (cereal/labour) in November were recorded in the maize producing areas of Jammame in Lower Juba (32kg/daily labour wage) and Qoryole in Lower Shabelle (27kg/daily labour wage). In Bay, where sorghum production was good, Qansah Dhere and Baidoa (23kg and 18kg/daily labour wage, respectively), also recorded the high TOT. Overall, the terms of trade in Nov. ‘09 are 58% and 35% higher than the 5-year average in Shabelle and Juba regions, respectively, while in Sorghum Belt these are 10% lower.