Issued 17 December

LIVESTOCK

Pasture and water conditions
Following the average performance of Deyr rains browse and grazing conditions have greatly improved in most grazing sites of the north, including Hawd, Nugal valley, most of Sool Plateau and Guban livelihood zones. Reports indicate that water catchments are replenished and water trucking has discontinued, leading to a decrease in water prices. Pastoralists are reducing their usage of boreholes because livestock are able to access water at other sites.

In contrast, pasture conditions appear extremely poor in western parts of Sool plateau (particularly in Erigaabo, Ceelafweyn and Taleeh districts), as well as most of Upper Nugal (Caynabo, Ceelafweyn and western parts of Xudun districts), Golis mountains with the adjacent plains, Hawd of Hargeisa, coastal areas in Bari and Nugal regions, Hawd and Addun (Jariban district) of north Mudug. Water catchments and berkads in these areas are only partially full and water prices have been increasing since November. Pasture and water in these areas are likely to be insufficient for livestock herds through the Jilaal dry season (January to March). This may cause early water trucking in Sool plateau and Upper Nugal valley, Hawd and Addun (Jariban district) of north Mudug as well as Hawd of Hargeisa.
The worst pasture and water conditions are observed in North Galgaduud (Abudwak, Dhusamareeb and Adaado districts) as well as Hiran (Hawd pastoral, Southern Inland pastoral and agropastoral areas of Jalalaqsi and Bulo-Burti districts), which are experiencing a sixth season of drought. However, in the southern regions of Shabelle, Juba, Bay/Bakool and Gedo, pasture has almost completely recovered and water catchments are replenished. 
Generally, livestock in southern Somalia have returned to respective livelihood zones due to sufficient pasture and water resources.

Additionally no abnormal livestock migration is observed in the north, while intra-regional migrations are reported from rain-deficit areas to areas with good/normal rainfall in lower and central Nugal valley, east of Sool Plateau and Hawd of Sool, Nugal and Togdheer regions. Early migration from areas with poor rainfall in the north to the Golis, Guban and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones has also started in order to benefit from the Hays rains (late Nov. ’09 through Feb. ‘10). Conversely, in central areas, significant abnormal migration of livestock is reported in northern districts of Galgaduud region with livestock moving to Somali region of Ethiopia, south Mudug and south of Galgaduud. In Hiran region, cattle pastoralists migrated to Middle Shabelle.

Livestock Body Condition, Production and Reproduction  
Throughout the pastoral livelihood zones, livestock body condition is directly related to seasonal performance.
In W. Galbeed and Awdal regions, cattle and sheep have weak body conditions, particularly lactating and older animals. They show limited signs of recovery because of poor pasture rejuvenation due to overgrazing of limited communal grazing areas. Additionally, there has been almost no fodder production and cattle are only surviving through hand-feeding with premature crops. Camel body conditions are also poor due to the suspected Camel Pox disease. However, in Sool, eastern Sanaag, parts of Bari and Nugal, north Mudug, south Galgaduud, Hiran, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Gedo and Lower Juba regions livestock are recovering from the previous emerging drought and successive poor seasonal performances. The recovery to average body conditions, is attributed to improved access to good to average pasture/browsing conditions and fodder availability in most areas. In Lower Shabelle, Bay and Middle Juba regions, which have had many successive good seasons, livestock body conditions are good. 

In the north, livestock production and reproduction are low because of limited conception during the past Jillaal and Gu ’09, as well as livestock diseases for camels and goats during Hagaa ’09 that resulted in death and caused abortions. In the areas that received average rainfall, camel conception started at a low rate, although major calving/ kidding is expected in Dec. ‘09. The cattle calving rate in the central livelihood zones of the Cowpea Belt and Hiran agropastoral, as well as in agropastoral zone of the northwest are very low due to the emerging drought and poor pasture. However, in most southern regions calving/kidding has started at a low rate and will increase in Dec. ’09 and Jan. ’10; the exception is Bakool where cattle conception has been low because of drought.  Milk production and availability throughout Somalia with the exception of north Galgaduud and Hawd of Hiran has improved slightly because of increased milk yields in areas with improved calving/kidding and the increased availability of water and forage.

Livestock Trade, Prices and Terms of Trade (TOT)
Last month, there were livestock price increases in most areas of Somalia with the exception of cattle in the northeast and local quality goat in Sorghum Belt, as well as all livestock species in central regions. Cattle prices in the south and northwest have increased by 12-23%, while in the northeast, the prices decreased by 7%. However, compared to Nov. last year the cattle prices are still lower in Sorghum Belt (42%), Shabelle (18%) and Juba (30%) regions. Local quality goat prices in the northern regions increased by 1-9% in the last month, but are 7-11% higher compared to Nov. ‘08. Export quality goat prices have also increased marginally (up to 5%) in Nov. ’09 due to high demand during Hajj season, low market supply as a result of repeated droughts, as well as lifting of the Somali livestock export ban by Saudi Arabia (Oct. ’09). Terms of trade (TOT) of cereal to local goat increased in the last month in most areas of Somalia, except in the central zone where it has declined by 11% since Oct. In the Sorghum Belt, Shabelle and Juba regions, the percentage increase in TOT (cereal to cattle) is equivalent to 14%, 29% and 21%, respectively. The removal of the livestock import ban resulted in sharp increase of livestock exports from Bossaso and Berbera in November after a drastic decline (47%) observed between Aug.-Oct. ‘09. The livestock exports increases are equivalent to 484% (from 71,520 to 346,142 heads) in Bossaso and  998% (from 80,356 to 801,886 heads) in Berbera. Conversely, the Burao slaughter-house has not exported meat in the past two months (Oct. - Nov.) due to the expiry of contract with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, the Galkayo slaughter-house has exported 2,500 carcass heads in Oct. ’09, which is similar to Sep. ’09 export volume but still 37% lower than in Aug. ’09.